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Day Traders should seriously consider the benefits of utilising either an offshore company or a trust or both
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If you don't understand this chart, come on one of our sales seminars and learn how traders use Advanced GET to profit in their trading. The futures charts within these pages are contract continuation charts, and some contain past examples as well as current analysis. We do not give specific recommendations.
All Analysis on these pages is created with Advanced GET RT. Data supplied by CQG
We will start this Editorial section by taking a look at what TTI (the creators of Advanced GET) call the 'Type 1' trade. The chart shown above is a 60-minute full Elliott sequence down in Treasury Bonds, 30-Year US. The Type 1 trade is quite simply, entering the trade short (in this case) at the end of wave 4 to trade the wave 5 down. We will cover trading wave 3’s in another Editorial.

Looking at the chart above, you should have noted that it is a double bottom. In terms of an example this is good as it allows me to demonstrate how trades can full short of our expectations and why I believe it is so important to trade with two positions, short-term (ST) and long-term (LT). I think this procedure can make the difference between winning and losing overall. I will explain why further into the Editorial.

For now there are a couple of points I wish to explain concerning the chart above. First, there is the Elliott Count. An Elliott Count is a guide to where the market may be at any given moment. Note, I use the words ‘guide’ and ‘may’. The reason for this is: there is no such thing as a hard and fast count; counts will be validated or invalidated as the market progress.

In fact, you could put three or so Elliott traders in a room, give them the same chart, and each would give you a different count! These counts may range from usable, to ludicrous. This is why Advanced GET has been programmed with a totally objective Elliott Wave count. Evan then, steps have to be taken to verify that the count given by the software is fit to trade.

The other thing I’d like you to note at this stage are the Pivot points on the chart. These are labeled P (primary), J (major) and I (intermediate). The labels are slightly obscured by the Elliott count, but the count can be turned on and off at the touch of a mouse button if this is ever a problem. The important thing to note is that these are important points from witch we can use our drawing tools. You will see this as we progress.

Trading technical analysis is all about probabilities. You will see that I have analysed a lot of information on this chart. Some traders prefer to keep thing more simple. This - in the majority of cases – means they don’t look so deep. It is a matter of ones style, and this only develops with experience. My point here is that the more concurrences that appear to come together at any one time and price improve your perception of the probabilities of your success with any given trade. However you trade, you must trade with confidence!

The amount a wave 4 can retrace, and the presents of an ABC correction within the wave 4 varies from sequence to sequence. So we need a practical rule here to keep us from entering the trade too soon. In general, a wave 4 will retrace wave 3 by one of three ratios. Either 38% or 50% are most common. The other ratio is 61.8%, but this is more common in Elliott sequences that become invalidated, and thus lose us money when traded.
If the Wave 4 termination is less than 38% and meets with an Ellipse, at the same time that the 5,35 Oscillator retraces to zero (more on next page), then this is also expectable. (There is no Ellipse in this case.) This tends to happen when wave 4 is a longer sideways movement. The wave 4 should not retrace past the wave 4 channels shown in the chart above. If this happens, the odds decrease for a good wave 5, and again, you are more likely to end up losing the trade. The PTI figure needs to be 35 or greater. Again, this is a measure of the probability for a good wave 5. .

At the time we have decided that this may be a high probability place for a wave 4 to terminate at, the 5,35 Oscillator should retrace to zero (the base line) without moving beyond 40% of the wave 3 Oscillator height, projected (in this case) up from the base line. If this point is broken, one must move to the next Oscillator out (10,70) and use that to assess if wave 4 could have ended.

Once again, the Oscillator should retrace to zero without taking out the 40% level. I often refer to this as the –40% level, as it is on the other side of the base line to the wave 3 peak.

There are a couple more price termination checks we can perform. W4.C will often be equal to either a 61.8% or 100% or 162% of W4.a. This is shown on the chart where W4.C = 100% of W4.A. The other is to draw a MOB from W4.A. In most cases this will catch the W4.C termination.

Time is also another important consideration in trading, although this tends to be less precise when compared with price. The best tool I’ve ever seen for accurately predicting price is Advanced GET’s Ellipse. But as stated, there is no Ellipse here. Regardless of the Ellipse, the minimum time for a wave 4 retracement to complete is 38.2% of wave 3. The typical amount is between wave 38.2% and 61.8%. Past this, again things become less predictable.

Finally, in the analysis process, and this is one of the observations I have grown fond of, is the fact that retracements will nearly always end at an old support/resistance level. The level concerned on our Bonds chart is shown by the big MOB above. This MOB was first support, but once the market gained enough downward momentum to get past it, the MOB became a resistance level. This is such an important principle in technical analysis: old support becomes new resistance and visa-versa. If you take a look in the ‘Markets’ section, just make an observation of how many wave 2s and wave 4s end in old support/resistance levels. When this is not a MOB, I tend to show it as a thick grey line that can be followed back towards the left where support or resistance can clearly be seen in the chart it’s self. For example, a pivot low is support. Something stopped the market there; made it tern around and go back up. These levels stick in trader’s minds and the trading collective will tend to pay a lot of attention to their actions when the market is near to them.

When the analysis is complete, the next step is to place the trade. This is where I will reiterate the importance of trading sort-term (ST) and long-term (LT) positions. When the trade is placed, both ST and LT stop-losses are placed a couple of ticks above wave 4 @ 94-30. A trend-channel drawn on the last slop of the wave 4 (the C slop) is used to enter the trade. The entry is simple and totally mechanical. Wait for a Close outside of the trend-channel. Once this bar is complete with a close outside, place a stop in the market one tick below the low of the bar that closed outside of the trend-channel to enter the trade. The price the entry stop is placed at in this trade is 94-09; this is an entry for both ST and LT positions. Your risk is the difference between the entry and stop-loss; here, this is 21 ticks. This is a dollar amount of $656.25 per contract, or $328.02 per MIDAM contract.

When this level is penetrated, you are automatically placed in the trade. The MOB shown on the chart above shows the first resistance area that presents a fret to the progression of our trade. When the market is nearing it we want to move our ST stop-loss into the profit side of our entry, but keep it away from the price action by placing it a tick or two above a high several bars back from the current at that time. This would be at around 93-20. Depending on ones trading style, the LT position stop-loss can be moved to break-even, 94-09, or left at 94-30. Once the market hits the MOB, support is expected, so one covers the ST position to maximise its profit. Do not forget to cancel the ST stop-loss at this time. This occurs at around 92-30. We have now put some money in the bank (around $1343 per contract) and we can try and take advantage of any further movement down with the LT position.
This is not guaranteed, and in order to allow for the market to go down further, we also have to keep the LT stop-loss wound back allowing the market to move back up some without being stopped out. The market in all likelihood will move up again in reaction to the resistance depicted by the MOB, before moving back down further. This is why two positions is best; as seen in this chart, first resistance has the market running sideways to up. 

It is only when first resistance is archived and the market begins to move again towards the downside, that a sensible trend channel can be dawn to contain the wave 5. This trend channel is used to exit the LT position when the market breaks the upper channel (blue). 

Now this, being a double low, is a good example of trading two positions. Note I say positions not contracts. Each position can be a number of contracts depending on the amount of capital one has to trade with. I know this is obvious to most, but I have to cater for those who are new to trading as well. 

The market breaks the trend-channel at around 93-12. This is where we cover the long-term position, netting a further $437 dollars per contract. Note we made less with the LT position, not more! This is the advantage of trading ST and LT positions, as trying to allow for resistance and new lows with one position can make the whole trade a break-even trade, or worse still a loss. I hope you have enjoyed this first editorial. Good Trading 
Derek Pell 
UK – Advanced GET Rep.

Day Traders should look at  Advanced GET- The Premier Technical Analysis Software Package to maximise profits and minimise losses whilst trading from Sirius Traders. Click below for details:

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